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Saturday, February 2, 2019

Spain will soon overtake Japan in life expectancy rankings. Here’s why?




The importance of a healthy diet and lifestyle has long been acknowledged by healthcare professionals as one of the keys to a long and happy life. And for the people of Spain, the evidence bears this out as they’re about to topple the Japanese from the top spot in the longest life expectancy charts.

By 2040, Spaniards can expect to live to an average age of 85.8 years. That’s noticeably up from the 2016 level of 82.9 years when Spain was ranked fourth out of 195 countries. Japan now sits at number two in the  with an average life expectancy of 85.7, only slightly behind that of Spain. It was 83.7 years in 2016.

The chief explanation for Spain’s pronounced improvement is the country’s Mediterranean diet which helps guard against some of the five biggest early killers of the modern era: obesity, high blood pressure, elevated levels of blood sugar, tobacco use and excessive alcohol consumption. 

In 2016, four of the 10 most common causes of early death were non-communicable diseases (NCDs). But by 2040 NCDs are forecast to account for seven: ischemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), chronic kidney disease, Alzheimer’s disease, diabetes, and lung cancer.

“The future of the world’s health is not preordained,” says the study’s lead author Dr Kyle Foreman, Director of Data Science at the IHME.

“But whether we see significant progress or stagnation depends on how well or poorly health systems address key health drivers,” he adds, referring to the five major influences on premature mortality.

The IHME researchers examined different independent drivers of health, including sociodemographic measurements of fertility, per capita income and years of education, along with more obvious factors like smoking, high body mass index, and access to clean water and sanitation. 

In addition to calling attention to the growing importance of NCDs, the analysis exposes a substantial risk of HIV/AIDS mortality rebounding, which could undo recent life expectancy gains in several nations including – but not limited to – those in sub-Saharan Africa. 

Chinese health officials recently announced there has been a 14% increase in HIV infection rates in China, with around 40,000 new cases reported in the second quarter of 2018 alone.

Spain leads the way in the 2040 Life Expectancy rankings from the IHME.
Image: IHME

Citizens of all the top 10 countries are predicted to live into their mid 80s. Yet there are startling differences and inequalities revealed by the IHME study, which looked at best- and worst-case scenario predictions. In one worst-case scenario, life expectancy drops by almost half for all countries over the next generation. By contrast, in the better scenario, 158 countries will see life expectancy gains of at least five years, while 46 nations may see gains of 10 years or more.

Syria has seen the greatest rise up the global rankings – from 137th in 2016 to 80th by 2040. But this change is because of a predicted levelling off of armed conflict.

Among the bottom-ranked nations, including Lesotho, Swaziland, Central African Republic, and South Africa, the better and worse scenarios in 2040 range from a high of 75.3 years in South Africa to a low of 45.3 years in Lesotho – a predicted potential difference of 30 years.

But the predictions for some of the world’s most affluent nations are among some of the most surprising. The USA is the IHME index’s biggest loser among high-income countries falling from 43rd in 2016 to 64th in 2040, due to an increase of just 1.1 year – from 78.7 to 78.9 years.

Dr Christopher Murray, IHME Director, explains the purpose of worse and best scenario ranges. “These scenarios offer new insights and help to frame health planning, especially regarding long lag periods between initial investments and their impacts, such as in the research and development of drugs.”

Ref:https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/10/spain-is-about-to-overtake-japan-in-life-expectancy/


What Life Expectancy Really Means

Many people look at a nation's given life expectancy and take it to mean that the average person in a particular country lives to a particular age, while the reality is more complicated. Mathematically, the largest driving factor in life expectancy isn't the longevity of the country's oldest citizens, but the number of people who die young.

With that in mind, one can view life expectancy as a measure of a range of public health factors: access to childcare services, traffic safety, hospital capacity, prevalence of smoking and so on. And, in many cases, the metrics can be affected by broad ecological issues like droughts or wildfires. If you want a fuller picture of why each country has the ranking it has, you can start by looking at the country profiles.

The Rankings

Our statistics come from the most recent data gathered by the CIA World Factbook. As of 2015, the country with the highest life expectancy is Monaco at 89.52 years; the country with the lowest is Chad at 49.81 years.



Rank

Country

(years)


Rank

Country

(years)


Rank

Country

(years)


Rank

Country

(years)


Rank

Country

(years)

1

Monaco

89.52


51

Bahrain

78.73


101

Maldives

75.37


151

Bangladesh

70.94


201

Liberia

58.60

2

Japan

84.74


52

Chile

78.61


102

Serbia

75.26


152

Kazakhstan

70.55


202

Cote d'Ivoire

58.34

3

Singapore

84.68


53

Qatar

78.59


103

Oman

75.21


153

Russia

70.47


203

Cameroon

57.93

4

Macau

84.51


54

Cyprus

78.51


104

Barbados

75.18


154

Moldova

70.42


204

Sierra Leone

57.79

5

San Marino

83.24


55

Czech Republic

78.48


105

American Samoa

75.14


155

Kyrgyzstan

70.36


205

Zimbabwe

57.05

6

Iceland

82.97


56

Panama

78.47


106

Solomon Islands

75.12


156

Korea, North

70.11


206

Congo, Democratic Republic of the

56.93

7

Hong Kong

82.86


57

British Virgin Islands

78.46


107

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

75.09


157

Turkmenistan

69.78


207

Angola

55.63

8

Andorra

82.72


58

Costa Rica

78.40


108

Saudi Arabia

75.05


158

Bhutan

69.51


208

Mali

55.34

9

Switzerland

82.50


59

Cuba

78.39


109

Romania

74.92


159

Mongolia

69.29


209

Niger

55.13

10

Guernsey

82.47


60

Albania

78.13


110

Gaza Strip

74.87


160

Philippines

68.96


210

Burkina Faso

55.12

11

Israel

82.27


61

Slovenia

78.01


111

Iraq

74.85


161

Bolivia

68.86


211

Uganda

54.93

12

Luxembourg

82.17


62

Curacao

77.98


112

Malaysia

74.75


162

Belize

68.59


212

Botswana

54.18

13

Australia

82.15


63

Dominican Republic

77.97


113

Lithuania

74.69


163

India

68.13


213

Nigeria

53.02

14

Italy

82.12


64

Kuwait

77.82


114

Syria

74.69


164

Guyana

68.09


214

Mozambique

52.94

15

Sweden

81.98


65

Northern Mariana Islands

77.82


115

Turkey

74.57


165

Timor-Leste

67.72


215

Lesotho

52.86

16

Liechtenstein

81.77


66

Argentina

77.69


116

Venezuela

74.54


166

Nepal

67.52


216

Zambia

52.15

17

Jersey

81.76


67

Sint Maarten

77.61


117

Seychelles

74.49


167

Pakistan

67.39


217

Gabon

52.04

18

Canada

81.76


68

Saint Lucia

77.60


118

Thailand

74.43


168

Tajikistan

67.39


218

Somalia

51.96

19

France

81.75


69

New Caledonia

77.50


119

El Salvador

74.42


169

Papua New Guinea

67.03


219

Central African Republic

51.81

20

Norway

81.70


70

Lebanon

77.40


120

Bulgaria

74.39


170

Nauru

66.75


220

Namibia

51.62

21

Spain

81.57


71

Poland

77.40


121

Armenia

74.37


171

Burma

66.29


221

Swaziland

51.05

22

Austria

81.39


72

United Arab Emirates

77.29


122

Jordan

74.35


172

Ghana

66.18


222

Afghanistan

50.87

23

Anguilla

81.31


73

Uruguay

77.00


123

Latvia

74.23


173

Tuvalu

66.16


223

Guinea-Bissau

50.23

24

Netherlands

81.23


74

Paraguay

76.99


124

Montserrat

74.14


174

Kiribati

65.81


224

Chad

49.81

25

Bermuda

81.15


75

French Polynesia

76.98


125

Grenada

74.05


175

Madagascar

65.55


CIA World Factbook, 2015.

26

Cayman Islands

81.13


76

Brunei

76.97


126

Egypt

73.70


176

Yemen

65.18



27

Isle of Man

81.09


77

Slovakia

76.88


127

Jamaica

73.55


177

Gambia, The

64.60





28

New Zealand

81.05


78

Dominica

76.79


128

Uzbekistan

73.55


178

Sao Tome and Principe

64.58





29

Belgium

80.88


79

Morocco

76.71


129

Brazil

73.53


179

Togo

64.51





30

Finland

80.77


80

Croatia

76.61


130

Peru

73.48


180

Cambodia

64.14





31

Ireland

80.68


81

Algeria

76.59


131

Samoa

73.46


181

Laos

63.88





32

Germany

80.57


82

Ecuador

76.56


132

Vietnam

73.16


182

Comoros

63.85





33

United Kingdom

80.54


83

Aruba

76.56


133

Vanuatu

73.06


183

Equatorial Guinea

63.85





34

Greece

80.43


84

Sri Lanka

76.56


134

Nicaragua

72.98


184

Eritrea

63.81





35

Saint Pierre and Miquelon

80.39


85

Bosnia and Herzegovina

76.55


135

Palau

72.87


185

Kenya

63.77





36

Malta

80.25


86

Estonia

76.47


136

Marshall Islands

72.84


186

Sudan

63.68





37

Faroe Islands

80.24


87

Antigua and Barbuda

76.33


137

Micronesia, Federated States of

72.62


187

Haiti

63.51





38

European Union

80.20


88

Libya

76.26


138

Trinidad and Tobago

72.59


188

Djibouti

62.79





39

Korea, South

80.04


89

Tonga

76.04


139

Belarus

72.48


189

Mauritania

62.65





40

Taiwan

79.98


90

Macedonia

76.02


140

Indonesia

72.45


190

Western Sahara

62.64





41

Virgin Islands

79.89


91

Georgia

75.95


141

Fiji

72.43


191

South Africa

62.34





42

Turks and Caicos Islands

79.69


92

West Bank

75.91


142

Bahamas, The

72.20


192

Tanzania

61.71





43

United States

79.68


93

Tunisia

75.89


143

Azerbaijan

72.20


193

Ethiopia

61.48





44

Wallis and Futuna

79.57


94

Hungary

75.69


144

Greenland

72.10


194

Benin

61.47





45

Saint Helena, Ascension,

and Tristan da Cunha

79.36


95

Mexico

75.65


145

Guatemala

72.02


195

Senegal

61.32





46

Gibraltar

79.28


96

Cook Islands

75.60


146

Suriname

71.97


196

Malawi

60.66





47

Denmark

79.25


97

Saint Kitts and Nevis

75.52


147

Cabo Verde

71.85


197

Burundi

60.09





48

Puerto Rico

79.25


98

Colombia

75.48


148

Ukraine

71.57


198

Guinea

60.08





49

Portugal

79.16


99

China

75.41


149

Iran

71.15


199

Rwanda

59.67





50

Guam

78.98


100

Mauritius

75.40


150

Honduras

71.00


200

Congo, Republic of the

58.79
























Ref:https://www.infoplease.com/world/health-and-social-statistics/life-expectancy-countries-0


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