Even though the government’s primary objectives were arguably
achieved through these extreme measures, it has been at an extraordinary
human cost. The draconian enforcement of these policies, combined with
the unintended consequences on families and the cultural preference for
male children, will have an everlasting impact on the country’s future.
Wonky Demographics
Fast forward to today, and the policy is still in place, but to a
lesser effect. Since early 2016, families have been allowed to have two
children – but even with this change in place, China still has a
self-inflicted demographic disaster on its hands.
In the below population pyramids created by Aron Strandberg,
the very different trajectories of China and India are compared
directly. China is not only skewing older and more male – it is also
losing its strong base of younger workers that could potentially support
the rest of the population.
China’s “population pyramid” is not really a pyramid at all – in
the coming decades, it’ll look more like a single pillar stuck propping
up a burgeoning elderly demographic of people born before 1979.
And over time, the unintended and ongoing effects of population
control will be extremely impactful on China’s future. As one example of
the emerging challenges, a recent estimate published in Scientific American pegged China’s shortage of women at 62 million, creating a situation where there’ll be millions of men who are unable to marry.
This gender imbalance exacerbates an already existing shortfall at
the younger end of China’s population spectrum – and the end result will
be a rapidly falling ratio of workers to retirees in the Chinese
economy:
Today, the ratio is roughly seven workers per retiree – and by
2050, when China’s population is 100 million people fewer than it is
today, there will be just two workers per retiree.
A new population paradigm
As China struggles with a declining population and a lack of young
people, India is expected to takes its place as the most populous
country in the world by roughly 2027.
This new paradigm will be an incredibly interesting one to watch.
Instead, these massive metropolises will almost exclusively be
located in places like India and Africa – and some of them, like Mumbai,
will hold 60 million or more inhabitants.
China's new hope
While this shift in global demographics is going to be extremely
difficult to deal with for China, there is optimism that increasing
levels of automation and the emergence of artificial intelligence will help make up for any shortfalls.
The AI market alone is expected to drive $7 trillion in GDP growth
by 2030, and China’s investments in robotics and automation are sure to
keep the country a center of manufacturing in the future – even if those
factories are being staffed with robots instead of workers.
Ref:https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/08/this-animation-compares-the-population-growth-of-india-and-china?utm_content=buffer029d3&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=buffer
Ref:https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/08/this-animation-compares-the-population-growth-of-india-and-china?utm_content=buffer029d3&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=buffer
No comments:
Post a Comment