Spain will soon overtake Japan in life expectancy rankings. Here’s why?

The importance of a healthy diet and lifestyle has long been acknowledged by healthcare professionals as one of the keys to a long and happy life. And for the people of Spain, the evidence bears this out as they’re about to topple the Japanese from the top spot in the longest life expectancy charts.

By 2040, Spaniards can expect to live to an average age of 85.8 years. That’s noticeably up from the 2016 level of 82.9 years when Spain was ranked fourth out of 195 countries. Japan now sits at number two in the  with an average life expectancy of 85.7, only slightly behind that of Spain. It was 83.7 years in 2016.

The chief explanation for Spain’s pronounced improvement is the country’s Mediterranean diet which helps guard against some of the five biggest early killers of the modern era: obesity, high blood pressure, elevated levels of blood sugar, tobacco use and excessive alcohol consumption. 

In 2016, four of the 10 most common causes of early death were non-communicable diseases (NCDs). But by 2040 NCDs are forecast to account for seven: ischemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), chronic kidney disease, Alzheimer’s disease, diabetes, and lung cancer.

“The future of the world’s health is not preordained,” says the study’s lead author Dr Kyle Foreman, Director of Data Science at the IHME.

“But whether we see significant progress or stagnation depends on how well or poorly health systems address key health drivers,” he adds, referring to the five major influences on premature mortality.

The IHME researchers examined different independent drivers of health, including sociodemographic measurements of fertility, per capita income and years of education, along with more obvious factors like smoking, high body mass index, and access to clean water and sanitation. 

In addition to calling attention to the growing importance of NCDs, the analysis exposes a substantial risk of HIV/AIDS mortality rebounding, which could undo recent life expectancy gains in several nations including – but not limited to – those in sub-Saharan Africa. 

Chinese health officials recently announced there has been a 14% increase in HIV infection rates in China, with around 40,000 new cases reported in the second quarter of 2018 alone.

Image: IHME

Citizens of all the top 10 countries are predicted to live into their mid 80s. Yet there are startling differences and inequalities revealed by the IHME study, which looked at best- and worst-case scenario predictions. In one worst-case scenario, life expectancy drops by almost half for all countries over the next generation. By contrast, in the better scenario, 158 countries will see life expectancy gains of at least five years, while 46 nations may see gains of 10 years or more.

Syria has seen the greatest rise up the global rankings – from 137th in 2016 to 80th by 2040. But this change is because of a predicted levelling off of armed conflict.

Among the bottom-ranked nations, including Lesotho, Swaziland, Central African Republic, and South Africa, the better and worse scenarios in 2040 range from a high of 75.3 years in South Africa to a low of 45.3 years in Lesotho – a predicted potential difference of 30 years.

But the predictions for some of the world’s most affluent nations are among some of the most surprising. The USA is the IHME index’s biggest loser among high-income countries falling from 43rd in 2016 to 64th in 2040, due to an increase of just 1.1 year – from 78.7 to 78.9 years.

Dr Christopher Murray, IHME Director, explains the purpose of worse and best scenario ranges. “These scenarios offer new insights and help to frame health planning, especially regarding long lag periods between initial investments and their impacts, such as in the research and development of drugs.”

Ref:https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/10/spain-is-about-to-overtake-japan-in-life-expectancy/

What Life Expectancy Really Means

Many people look at a nation's given life expectancy and take it to mean that the average person in a particular country lives to a particular age, while the reality is more complicated. Mathematically, the largest driving factor in life expectancy isn't the longevity of the country's oldest citizens, but the number of people who die young.

With that in mind, one can view life expectancy as a measure of a range of public health factors: access to childcare services, traffic safety, hospital capacity, prevalence of smoking and so on. And, in many cases, the metrics can be affected by broad ecological issues like droughts or wildfires. If you want a fuller picture of why each country has the ranking it has, you can start by looking at the country profiles.

The Rankings

Our statistics come from the most recent data gathered by the CIA World Factbook. As of 2015, the country with the highest life expectancy is Monaco at 89.52 years; the country with the lowest is Chad at 49.81 years.

Rank	Country	(years)		Rank	Country	(years)		Rank	Country	(years)		Rank	Country	(years)		Rank	Country	(years)
1	Monaco	89.52		51	Bahrain	78.73		101	Maldives	75.37		151	Bangladesh	70.94		201	Liberia	58.60
2	Japan	84.74		52	Chile	78.61		102	Serbia	75.26		152	Kazakhstan	70.55		202	Cote d'Ivoire	58.34
3	Singapore	84.68		53	Qatar	78.59		103	Oman	75.21		153	Russia	70.47		203	Cameroon	57.93
4	Macau	84.51		54	Cyprus	78.51		104	Barbados	75.18		154	Moldova	70.42		204	Sierra Leone	57.79
5	San Marino	83.24		55	Czech Republic	78.48		105	American Samoa	75.14		155	Kyrgyzstan	70.36		205	Zimbabwe	57.05
6	Iceland	82.97		56	Panama	78.47		106	Solomon Islands	75.12		156	Korea, North	70.11		206	Congo, Democratic Republic of the	56.93
7	Hong Kong	82.86		57	British Virgin Islands	78.46		107	Saint Vincent and the Grenadines	75.09		157	Turkmenistan	69.78		207	Angola	55.63
8	Andorra	82.72		58	Costa Rica	78.40		108	Saudi Arabia	75.05		158	Bhutan	69.51		208	Mali	55.34
9	Switzerland	82.50		59	Cuba	78.39		109	Romania	74.92		159	Mongolia	69.29		209	Niger	55.13
10	Guernsey	82.47		60	Albania	78.13		110	Gaza Strip	74.87		160	Philippines	68.96		210	Burkina Faso	55.12
11	Israel	82.27		61	Slovenia	78.01		111	Iraq	74.85		161	Bolivia	68.86		211	Uganda	54.93
12	Luxembourg	82.17		62	Curacao	77.98		112	Malaysia	74.75		162	Belize	68.59		212	Botswana	54.18
13	Australia	82.15		63	Dominican Republic	77.97		113	Lithuania	74.69		163	India	68.13		213	Nigeria	53.02
14	Italy	82.12		64	Kuwait	77.82		114	Syria	74.69		164	Guyana	68.09		214	Mozambique	52.94
15	Sweden	81.98		65	Northern Mariana Islands	77.82		115	Turkey	74.57		165	Timor-Leste	67.72		215	Lesotho	52.86
16	Liechtenstein	81.77		66	Argentina	77.69		116	Venezuela	74.54		166	Nepal	67.52		216	Zambia	52.15
17	Jersey	81.76		67	Sint Maarten	77.61		117	Seychelles	74.49		167	Pakistan	67.39		217	Gabon	52.04
18	Canada	81.76		68	Saint Lucia	77.60		118	Thailand	74.43		168	Tajikistan	67.39		218	Somalia	51.96
19	France	81.75		69	New Caledonia	77.50		119	El Salvador	74.42		169	Papua New Guinea	67.03		219	Central African Republic	51.81
20	Norway	81.70		70	Lebanon	77.40		120	Bulgaria	74.39		170	Nauru	66.75		220	Namibia	51.62
21	Spain	81.57		71	Poland	77.40		121	Armenia	74.37		171	Burma	66.29		221	Swaziland	51.05
22	Austria	81.39		72	United Arab Emirates	77.29		122	Jordan	74.35		172	Ghana	66.18		222	Afghanistan	50.87
23	Anguilla	81.31		73	Uruguay	77.00		123	Latvia	74.23		173	Tuvalu	66.16		223	Guinea-Bissau	50.23
24	Netherlands	81.23		74	Paraguay	76.99		124	Montserrat	74.14		174	Kiribati	65.81		224	Chad	49.81
25	Bermuda	81.15		75	French Polynesia	76.98		125	Grenada	74.05		175	Madagascar	65.55		CIA World Factbook, 2015.
26	Cayman Islands	81.13		76	Brunei	76.97		126	Egypt	73.70		176	Yemen	65.18
27	Isle of Man	81.09		77	Slovakia	76.88		127	Jamaica	73.55		177	Gambia, The	64.60
28	New Zealand	81.05		78	Dominica	76.79		128	Uzbekistan	73.55		178	Sao Tome and Principe	64.58
29	Belgium	80.88		79	Morocco	76.71		129	Brazil	73.53		179	Togo	64.51
30	Finland	80.77		80	Croatia	76.61		130	Peru	73.48		180	Cambodia	64.14
31	Ireland	80.68		81	Algeria	76.59		131	Samoa	73.46		181	Laos	63.88
32	Germany	80.57		82	Ecuador	76.56		132	Vietnam	73.16		182	Comoros	63.85
33	United Kingdom	80.54		83	Aruba	76.56		133	Vanuatu	73.06		183	Equatorial Guinea	63.85
34	Greece	80.43		84	Sri Lanka	76.56		134	Nicaragua	72.98		184	Eritrea	63.81
35	Saint Pierre and Miquelon	80.39		85	Bosnia and Herzegovina	76.55		135	Palau	72.87		185	Kenya	63.77
36	Malta	80.25		86	Estonia	76.47		136	Marshall Islands	72.84		186	Sudan	63.68
37	Faroe Islands	80.24		87	Antigua and Barbuda	76.33		137	Micronesia, Federated States of	72.62		187	Haiti	63.51
38	European Union	80.20		88	Libya	76.26		138	Trinidad and Tobago	72.59		188	Djibouti	62.79
39	Korea, South	80.04		89	Tonga	76.04		139	Belarus	72.48		189	Mauritania	62.65
40	Taiwan	79.98		90	Macedonia	76.02		140	Indonesia	72.45		190	Western Sahara	62.64
41	Virgin Islands	79.89		91	Georgia	75.95		141	Fiji	72.43		191	South Africa	62.34
42	Turks and Caicos Islands	79.69		92	West Bank	75.91		142	Bahamas, The	72.20		192	Tanzania	61.71
43	United States	79.68		93	Tunisia	75.89		143	Azerbaijan	72.20		193	Ethiopia	61.48
44	Wallis and Futuna	79.57		94	Hungary	75.69		144	Greenland	72.10		194	Benin	61.47
45	Saint Helena, Ascension, and Tristan da Cunha	79.36		95	Mexico	75.65		145	Guatemala	72.02		195	Senegal	61.32
46	Gibraltar	79.28		96	Cook Islands	75.60		146	Suriname	71.97		196	Malawi	60.66
47	Denmark	79.25		97	Saint Kitts and Nevis	75.52		147	Cabo Verde	71.85		197	Burundi	60.09
48	Puerto Rico	79.25		98	Colombia	75.48		148	Ukraine	71.57		198	Guinea	60.08
49	Portugal	79.16		99	China	75.41		149	Iran	71.15		199	Rwanda	59.67
50	Guam	78.98		100	Mauritius	75.40		150	Honduras	71.00		200	Congo, Republic of the	58.79

Ref:https://www.infoplease.com/world/health-and-social-statistics/life-expectancy-countries-0