5 facts about the Muslim population in Europe
Muslims
are a relatively small minority in Europe, making up roughly 5% of the
population. However, in some countries, such as France and Sweden, the
Muslim share of the population is higher. And, in the coming decades,
the Muslim share of the continent’s population is expected to grow – and
could more than double, according to Pew Research Center projections.
These
demographic shifts have already led to political and social upheavals
in many European countries, especially in the wake of the recent arrival
of millions of asylum seekers, many of whom are Muslims. In recent
national elections in France and Germany, for instance, immigration —
and particularly Muslim immigration — were top issues.
Using
Pew Research Center’s most recent population estimates, here are five
facts about the size and makeup of the Muslim population in Europe:
1France
and Germany have the largest Muslim populations in Europe (defined as
the 28 current European Union member countries plus Norway and
Switzerland). As of mid-2016, there were 5.7 million Muslims in
France (8.8% of the country’s population) and 5 million Muslims in
Germany (6.1%). The EU country in which Muslims make up the largest
share of the population is Cyprus: The island nation’s 300,000 Muslims
make up about one-quarter (25.4%) of its population, and are mostly
Turkish Cypriots with deep roots in Cyprus (and not recent migrants).
The Muslim share of Europe’s total population has been increasing steadily and will continue to grow in the coming decades.
From mid-2010 to mid-2016 alone, the share of Muslims in Europe rose
more than 1 percentage point, from 3.8% to 4.9% (from 19.5 million to
25.8 million). By 2050,
the share of the continent’s population that is Muslim could more than
double, rising to 11.2% or more, depending on how much migration is
allowed into Europe. Even in the unlikely event that future migration is
permanently halted, the Muslim population still would rise to an
estimated 7.4%, due to the relative youth and high fertility rates of
Europe’s current Muslim residents.
3Muslims are much younger and have more children than other Europeans. In 2016, the median age of
Muslims throughout Europe was 30.4, 13 years younger than the median
for other Europeans (43.8). Looking at it another way, 50% of all
European Muslims are under the age of 30, compared with 32% of
non-Muslims in Europe. In addition, the average Muslim woman in Europe
is expected to have 2.6 children, a full child more than the average
non-Muslim woman (1.6 children).
4
Between mid-2010 and mid-2016, migration was the biggest factor driving the growth of Muslim populations in Europe. An
estimated 2.5 million Muslims came to Europe for reasons other than
seeking asylum, such as for employment or to go to school. About 1.3
million more Muslims received (or are expected to receive) refugee
status, allowing them to remain in Europe. An estimated 250,000 Muslims
left the region during this period.
Between mid-2010 and mid-2016, migration was the biggest factor driving the growth of Muslim populations in Europe. An
estimated 2.5 million Muslims came to Europe for reasons other than
seeking asylum, such as for employment or to go to school. About 1.3
million more Muslims received (or are expected to receive) refugee
status, allowing them to remain in Europe. An estimated 250,000 Muslims
left the region during this period.
Natural
growth was the secondary driver: Among European Muslims, there were 2.9
million more births than deaths during this period. Religious
switching is estimated to be a small factor in Muslim population change,
with roughly 160,000 more people switching away from Islam than
converting into the faith during this period.
5Views of Muslims vary widely across European countries. A 2016 Pew Research Center survey conducted in 10 nations found that negative views about Muslims prevailed in eastern and southern Europe.
However, the majority of respondents in the UK, Germany, France, Sweden
and the Netherlands gave Muslims a favorable rating. Views about
Muslims are tied to ideology. While 47% of Germans on the political
right give Muslims an unfavorable rating, just 17% on the left do so.
The gap between left and right is also roughly 30 percentage points in
Italy and Greece.
Note: This is an update of a post originally published on Jan. 15, 2015.Muslim population in some European countries ‘could triple’ by 2050′
Three
scenarios based on differing levels of migration were mapped out in a
report, suggesting that even if all migration immediately stopped, the
Muslim population would continue to grow
THE Muslim population in countries across Europe could triple by 2050, a report has suggested.
Finland's Muslim
population alone could increase by more than four times, while the UK
could see an increase of 2.65 times in little more than a decade,
according to projections made in the study.
Around
6.3 per cent of the UK's population is currently Muslim - compared to
the percentage of 4.9 across Europe - with the country potentially
reaching 17.2 per cent in the high migration scenario, to the
Washington-based Pew Forum report suggested.
The
report said countries like Germany and Sweden that would see the
biggest growth in Muslim population, stating: "Countries that have
received relatively large numbers of Muslim refugees in recent years are
projected to experience the biggest changes in the high migration
scenario."
Under
the highest level projections, one in five people in Germany would be
Muslim by 2050, Sweden is expected to see almost one in three.
The
report examined three scenarios - where migration into Europe was to
completely and permanently stop immediately, where all refugee levels
would slow but that the migration of those who come for reasons other
than seeking asylum would continue, or finally that the flow of refugees
into Europe would continue indefinitely.
Top 10 destinations of migrants
United Kingdom - 1,600,000
Germany - 1,350,000
France - 790,000
Italy - 720,000
Sweden - 450,000
Netherlands - 310,000
Switzerland - 280,000
Austria - 240,000
Belgium - 230,000
Spain - 210,000
*Total immigrants to Europe between 2010-2016
Under the projection of high migration, that percentage could be as high as 14 per cent.
Even
under the first projection where migration would stop completely,
Europe's Muslim population was predicted to grow by 7.4 per cent.
The
report identified the UK as the desired destination for a larger number
of migrants from outside Europe, with 1.6m people arriving in the
country between 2010 and 2016.
It stated: "The UK voted in a 2016 referendum to leave the EU, which may impact immigration patterns in the future."
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